Do incumbents always win re-election?

Does incumbency matter in political campaigns? Do voters just elect the “same old same old” politician during each election cycle?

I used to think that a sitting politician always got re-elected– except if they had faced a scandal (personal or financial) prior to the election.

So I was surprised when one term President George H.W. Bush (father of President George W. Bush) and Vice President Dan Quayle were not re-elected and lost to then-Governor Bill Clinton and his running mate then-U.S. Senator Al Gore in 1992.

President Bush had no scandal prior to the General Election, but the American voters must have thought otherwise of his capabilities, and went for the new Democratic contender.

President George H.W. Bush

Remember Democrat incumbent Congressman Gary Condit of California who lost his re-election bid, due to the alleged scandal over missing person Chandra Levy?

On the local scene, incumbent Ward 6 Democratic Councilmember Nina Trasoff narrowly lost the November, 2009 election to political newcomer Republican Steve Kozachik. People told me it was due to the financial mess of Rio Nuevo downtown development.

So, coming up on August 24 (Arizona primary) we have several incumbents running, with opposition in the primary:

–Republican U.S. Senate John McCain (facing former Congressman J.D. Hayworth & Jim Deakin)
–Republican Governor Jan Brewer (facing Dr. Matt Jette)
–Republican Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce (facing Brenda Burns and Barry Wong, but for 2 seats)

and in the Legislature in Southern Arizona:

–Republican LD 30 State Senator Ted Antenori (facing former House Rep. Marian McClure)

–Republican LD 26 House Rep. Vic Williams (facing Wade McLean and Terri Proud, but for 2 seats)

–Democrat LD 28 House Rep. Steve Farley (facing Ted Prezelski, Mohur Sidhwa, Tim Sultan, and former House Rep. Bruce Wheeler, but for 2 seats)

–Republicans LD 30 House Rep. David Gowan and Rep.Ted Vogt (facing Brian Abbott, Kurt Knurr, Doug Sposito and Parralee Schneider, for 2 seats). These candidates are meeting tonight at the Eastside Republicans meeting (click here).

Of course, it is conceivable (since voters are volatile and incumbency does not guarantee the seat) that the incumbents could lose, and brand new candidates may be selected in their stead. After all, political experience isn’t everything. But name recognition may be.

Stay tuned if any or all of these incumbents earn enough of the people’s votes to win their primaries, to face other contenders in the General Election on November 2nd.

Do you remember other incumbents who have lost their seats, and for what reason (s)?

Eastside Republicans host LD 30 House candidates

If you live in Legislative District 30 and haven’t yet decided whom to vote for as your two representatives in the State House in the Republican primary on August 24, go to this meeting:

Eastside Republicans Meeting with Legislative District 30 House Candidates Brian Abbott, David Gowan, Kurt Knurr, Parralee Schneider, Doug Sposito, and Ted Vogt.

When: Wednesday, August 18, 2010, 6:00 PM

Where: Miller-Golf Links Branch Library – Community Room
9649 E. Golf Links Road (east of Harrison Rd., south side)

Besides the two incumbents Rep. Gowan and Rep. Vogt, you can consider the four other candidates. Rep. Gowan was elected to this seat in November, 2008, and Rep. Vogt was appointed to it in March, 2010, by the Pima County Board of Supervisors.

I blogged about them recently when four of them (Gowan, Knurr, Schneider, & Sposito) debated on July 20 for the Arizona Citizens Clean Elections program. Click here for my earlier blog (with photos) announcing that debate.

There is only one Democrat Andrea Dalessandro running in this LD30 house race, to face off in the General Election, with the 2 winners of the Republican primary. She ran before for this same seat in 2008.

Contact info for Eastside Republicans: Lori Oien, oienjmo@msn.com, 520-749-3472.

More info on LD 30, click here, from Pima County Republican Party website.

LD 30 House debate: vote for 2 of these 6 Republican candidates

Another crowded field of candidates for representatives in the Arizona House is in LD 30 with 6 candidates (two incumbents) seeking the two Republican nominations in the August 24 primary.

The Arizona Citizens Clean Elections Commission (CCEC) debate between these candidates was held on July 20, and is online now (click here). The debate was held at the Pima Community College East campus, 8181 E. Irvington Road, and only 3 candidates Rep. David Gowan, Kurt Knurr, and Parralee Schneider initially participated. Doug Sposito arrived 30 minutes into the debate.

C marks candidate running a “clean” election campaign, T marks a traditional candidate:

Brian Abbott (C)
Rep. David Gowan (C), www.gowan4az.com
Kurt Knurr (C), www.knurr4az30.com
Parralee Schneider (C), www.parralee.com
Doug Sposito (T), www.az30house.com
Rep. Ted Vogt (T), www.vogt4arizona.com

I reported about this race back on March 16, 2010 when Ted Vogt was appointed to the vacant LD 30 house seat by the Pima County Board of Supervisors (click here).
Rep. David Gowan has been serving in the state house for 2 years, and is seeking re-election to this seat.

See map of Legislative District 30 (from Pima County Republican Party website).

Kurt Knurr

Parralee Schneider

Rep. David Gowan

Doug Sposito

Photo of Brian Abbott not available.

Rep. Ted Vogt

Clean elections debate schedules for House races in LDs 26, 27, 28, & 30

Arizona’s Citizens Clean Elections Commission (CCEC) has announced the legislative debate schedule for their qualified candidates. Log onto www.azcleanelections.gov for updated info, but here’s the preliminary schedule for contested State House legislative districts in the Tucson area (for the August 24 primary):

C indicates “Clean” candidate, T indicates Traditionally funded candidate (per CCEC website)

July 07, 2010
Candidate Debate
LD 26 Republican Candidates House of Representatives
6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Pima Community College Northwest Campus
7600 N Shannon Road
Tucson, AZ
(Wade McLean- C, Terri Lynn Proud – T, Rep. Vic Williams – T)

July 08, 2010
Candidate Debate
LD 27 Democrat Candidates House of Representatives
6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Pima Community College District Office
Community Board Room
4905 E Broadway
Tucson, AZ
(John Martin Bernal – C, Eric Bustamante- C, Dustin Cox- T, Bob Gilby – C,
Sally Ann Gonzales – C, Sami Hamed – C, John Kromko – C, Dr. Macario Saldate – C)

July 13, 2010
Candidate Debate
LD 28 Democrat Candidates House of Representatives
6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Pima Community College District Office
Community Board Room
4905 E Broadway
Tucson, AZ
(Rep. Steve Farley – T, Ted Prezelski – C, Mohur Sidhwa – C, Tim Sultan – C,
Bruce Wheeler – C)

July 20, 2010
Candidate Debate
LD 30 Republican Candidates House of Representatives
6:00 PM – 7:30 PM
Pima Community College East Campus
8181 E Irvington Road
Tucson, AZ
(Brian Abbott – C, Rep. David Gowan – C, Kurt Knurr – C, Parralee Schneider – C,
Doug Sposito – T, Rep.Ted Vogt – T).

Not all legislative candidates in these races are running “clean” so refer to their website for further information (link is “2010 Candidate Listings with Funding Amounts”). 133 candidates are participating “clean” out of the total of 267 statewide candidates running.

“Participating candidates are required to attend the event and traditional candidates are encouraged to attend” per CCEC. Two will be elected from each Legislative District for the
Arizona House of Representatives.

For further info, email them at ccec@azcleanelections.gov, or call 602-364-3477, toll free (from 928 and 520 area codes) 1-877-631-8891.

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Supervisors appoint Vogt to LD 30 State House seat

The Pima County Board of Supervisors voted today 5-0 to appoint Ted Vogt to the LD 30 house seat vacated by last week’s appointment of State House Rep. Frank Antenori to the LD 30 State Senate seat. That senate seat was previously held by Republican Jonathan Paton who resigned on Feb. 22 to run for the U. S. House in Congressional District 8.

Per state statute, the LD 30 precinct committeemen and women met on March 10 and voted to submit 3 Republican names to the Board, to choose the successor to Antenori. (See A.R.S. legal explanation at bottom). If a Republican resigns, then a Republican must be appointed by the Board of Supervisors in his/her place. The Board is currently composed of 3 Democrats (Sharon Bronson, Richard Elias, and Ramon Valadez), and 2 Republicans (Ray Carroll and Ann Day).

Supervisor Carroll (whose district 4 includes LD 30) made the nomination this morning, saying that Vogt was the “lead vote getter” in the selection process. (Vogt had been nominated as well by the precinct committeemen/women for the vacant LD 30 State Senate seat).

Ted Vogt

LD 30 Chair Vogt was the top vote getter in the March 10 selection meeting and he is a UA third year law student and former Captain in the U.S. Air Force (served 6 years). The other two nominees were Parralee Schneider, a Tucson realtor and 3rd VP of the State GOP, and Doug Sposito, a small business general contractor and former LD 30 Chair.

Vogt will serve out Antenori’s term, when the General Election on Nov. 2nd will determine the 2 state house reps. in LD 30. Vogt got his B.A. from Yale University, and clerked under U.S. Senator Jon Kyl and Vice President Dick Cheney on homeland security matters.

Several Republican candidates have already filed to run for these house seats in LD 30, and will all compete in the August 24 primary:

–incumbent House Rep. David Gowan
–Kurt Knurr, a systems engineer for a Defense Contractor, www.kurt4az30.com
–Parralee Schneider, one of the nominees listed above
–Doug Sposito, one of the nominees listed above, former candidate for this house seat in 2004 and 2008.
–Ted Vogt, appointed today to this house seat

Candidate Brian Abbott also recently filed to run for this seat, and is a partner in a telecommunications consulting & contracting firm. According to him he is a Republican, though no party affiliation is listed on the state campaign finance website.

Democrat Andrea Dalessandro, (a retired tax accountant and instructor), who also was a candidate for LD 30 state house in 2008, is the lone Democrat in this field so far. See: www.andreaforaz.net.

Excerpts from A.R.S. 14-1202 as to this selection process:

“2.Those elected precinct committeemen shall nominate, within twenty-one days after notification of the vacancy by the secretary of state if the legislature is not in regular session or within five days if the legislature is in regular session and by a majority vote, three qualified electors to fill the vacancy who meet the requirements for service in the legislature and who belong to the same political party and reside at the time of nomination in the same district and county as the person elected to or appointed to the office immediately before the vacancy.”

“4. The state party chairman of the appropriate political party shall forward the names of the three persons named pursuant to paragraph 2 of this subsection to the board of supervisors of the county of residence of the person elected or appointed to the office immediately before the vacancy occurred. The board of supervisors shall appoint a person from the three nominees submitted.”

LD 30 precinct committeemen/women select Vogt, Schneider, and Sposito

Tonight 82 certified precinct committeemen/women of LD 30 selected Ted Vogt, Parralee Schneider, and Doug Sposito as nominees for the vacant House Rep. seat in that legislative district. Rep. Frank Antenori resigned last week Wednesday to assume the LD 30 State Senate seat, having been appointed by the Pima County Board of Supervisors at their March 2nd meeting.

State law (A.R.S. 14-1202) requires 3 names (with more than a majority of the votes cast) be submitted to the Board of Supervisors for their final selection.

Nominations from the floor were: Ted Vogt, Doug Sposito, Parralee Schneider, and Randy Graf, who all gave 5 minutes speeches about why they should be selected for appointment. Each person to be selected had to get 42 votes.

Vogt is the current LD 30 Chair and a 3rd year law student at the U of A, Sposito was the former LD 30 Chair and is a small business general contractor, Schneider is a realtor and former Republican Party officer for the County Party and LD 9 (now LD 30). She was also recently elected to be 3rd Vice Chair of the State GOP. Graf is a former 2 term House Rep. in LD 30 and was the Republican challenger for CD 8 in 2006, and is now a part-time consultant for the proposed Rosemont Copper Mine.

Both Vogt and Graf had been selected for nomination by the LD 30 precinct committeemen/women for the previously vacated State Senate seat in last week’s voting.

1st round winners: Vogt with 50 votes and Schneider with 46

2nd round winner: Sposito with 48 votes

All three of these nominees have filed to run as candidates for one of the 2 LD 30 house seats in the August 24 primary. Current LD 30 House Rep. David Gowan is also seeking re-election.

Attending tonight’s meeting: LD 30 State Senator Frank Antenori, GOP National Committeeman Bruce Ash, State GOP Chair Randy Pullen, 2007 Ward 2 City Council candidate Lori Oien, and 2007 Ward 4 City Council candidate Dan Spahr.

The Board of Supervisors will be meeting on Tuesday, March 16 to vote on these 3 nominees and appoint one to this LD 30 state house seat. The meeting is at usual at 9 a.m. at 130 W. Congress, first floor board meeting room.

If you wish to express comments to the Pima County Board re: any of these nominees, contact information is below:

District 1, Ann Day, 740-2738, ann.day@pima.gov
District 2, Ramon Valadez (Chair), 740-8126, jennifer.eckstrom@pima.gov
District 3, Sharon Bronson, 740-8051, district3@pima.gov
District 4, Ray Carroll, 740-8094, district4@pima.gov
District 4, Richard Elias, 740-8126, district5@pima.gov

UPDATE 3/16/10: Vogt appointed by Board of Supervisors, click here.

LD 30 precinct committeemen/women select Antenori, Vogt, and Graf

77 certified LD 30 Republican precinct committeemen and women selected 3 names to send to the Pima County Board of Supervisors, to fill the vacant LD 30 State Senate seat (created by the resignation of Jonathan Paton on Feb. 22).

Four men were nominated from the floor: former LD 9 State House Rep. Bill McGibbon (1992-2000), current LD 30 state House Rep. Frank Antenori, LD 30 Precinct Chairman Ted Vogt, and former LD 30 State House Rep. Randy Graf (2000-2004). Each man gave a 5 minute speech about why they wanted to be one of the 3 names to be submitted for consideration.

There were 3 separate written elections to select 3 names, as each name required 39 (more than half) of the 77 votes to qualify. Antenori received 71 votes on the first election, followed by Vogt who got 50 votes on the 2nd election, and then Graf got 56 on the 3rd election. Bill McGibbon was the name circulated by the media prior to today as one of the likely nominees, but Vogt was a new nominee. He served as Captain in the U.S. Air Force and is now a third year law student at the U of A. Vogt also mentioned in his introductory speech that he had clerked for U.S. Senator Jon Kyl and for VP Dick Cheney, but has never served in his own elected capacity.

Now it will be up to the Pima County Board of Supervisors to select Paton’s replacement. Supervisor Ray Carroll invited everyone to attend the board meeting on Tuesday, March 2, at 9 a.m. at 130 W. Congress (first floor),to find out whom the board will select. Usually the Supervisors select the top vote getter, but not necessarily– as the top precinct vote getter in State House LD 26 did not get the appointment, after Rep. Lena Seradnik resigned in 2008.

This LD 30 meeting was held this afternoon at Desert Christian High School, 7575 E. Speedway.

Also in attendance today:CD8 U.S. House candidate Jonathan Paton, LD 30 State House Rep. David Gowan, former LD 30 State House Rep. Marian McClure, National committeeman Bruce Ash, LD 30 State House candidate Doug Sposito.

Update: click here for 3/2/10 meeting results of Pima County Board of Supervisors.